AGRICULTURAL TRADE INTENSITY AND FOOD SECURITY IN NIGERIA

AGRICULTURAL TRADE INTENSITY AND FOOD SECURITY IN NIGERIA

Abstract:

The divergence between agricultural trade intensity (ATI) and food security in Nigeria suggests that the linkage is ambiguous. Illustratively, the degree of openness in the agriculture sector increased from 9% in 1981-1985 period to 12% in 2011-2015 while a 25% reduction in per capita daily dietary energy supply was observed during the same period. This crucial nexus in Nigeria has received very little empirical attention with existing studies being limited in terms of scope of food security and methodology employed. Therefore, this studyexamined the impact of ATI on the three dimensions of food security (availability, access and utilization)using separate models that were estimated using annual time series data for the period 1981 to 2015. Sequel to establishing that the data were a mixture of I(0) and I(1), the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged bound testing approach to cointegration was used to investigate the existence and nature of the long-run and short-run relationships. The error correction model-causality framework was employed to further investigate the extent and direction of causation between ATI and food security. The study finds that ATI has a negative and significantimpact on the three dimensions of food security in the long run;suggesting a worsening of the food insecurity situation in Nigeria over the long term. However, the positive impact of ATIon food security in the short run is not sustainable as it is offset by the negative and significant impact in the long term but provides impetus for making contemporaneous adjustments. The study concludesthat Nigeria has unduly relied on agricultural trade and failed to appreciate the multi-dimensional and general-equilibrium nature of food security, thereby leaving the country food insecure.Accordingly,the study recommends an overhaul of the entire Sustainable Food System (SFS)in terms ofsustainable food production, processing and storage; infrastructure, institutions and processes in a bid to enhance food security in Nigeria.

AGRICULTURAL TRADE INTENSITY AND FOOD SECURITY IN NIGERIA