THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY THE CASE OF CAMEROON

THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY THE CASE OF CAMEROON

Abstract

This study on the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Cameroon was set out to access the impact of climate change in Cameroon’s agriculture. Specifically, to determine the role of climate change on land productivity, the influence of climate change on labor and to access the impact of climate change on agricultural output. Using the Anthropogenic global warming theory of climate change, the human forcing theory of climate change, we established the relationship between climate change and agricultural productivity. In conducting the research, secondary data was used. The Ordinary Least Square Technique(OLS) was adopted to access this relationship between climate change and agricultural productivity in a period of 35yrs running from 1980-2015. The result shows that economic factors such as droughts, floods, insect infestation and poor seasons are the major climatic factor of agricultural productivity. Therefore, recommending to the government, especially the ministry of agriculture to educate the population on good management of these factors for the good of Cameroon.

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the Study

Climate is a dynamic phenomenon that changes continually, with long-term warming and cooling cycles. However, recent rapid and extensive changes are too extreme to be dismissed as ‘normal’, and have been shown to be closely correlated to changes in atmospheric carbon as a result of human activity {International Panel On Climate Change (see IPCC 2002a, b,c)}.

Many developing countries are especially sensitive to climate change because they are located in the tropics, with temperatures that already compromise agricultural production (Da Cunha et al., 2015; Kurukulasuriya et al., 2006; Mendelsohn et al., 2006), and because they have limited access to the human and physical capital that might mitigate its effects (Di Falco, 2014). These challenges are often compounded by a lack of access to new technology and to developed markets (Di Falco, 2014; Kurukulasuriya et al., 2006). Cameroon is one example of a country facing these challenges. Less than 1% of its land is under irrigation and the vast majority of its farmers rely entirely on rainfall (MoFA, 2010; 2014; World Bank, 2010).

We have established in a review of crop and livestock systems in Cameroon that the links between agriculture and climate are quite pronounced and often complex (Molua and Lambi 2005a, b). Crops need nutrients, water and heat to drive the photosynthetic process and produce edible products. Clearly, water and heat are factors affected by climate, but so are nutrients. Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations can be beneficial to crop productivity; but changes in temperature and precipitation can have mixed results, as can be seen in the CROPWAT analysis for Cameroon (Molua and Lambi 2006). This is compounded by the high sensitivity of crops to extreme events such as floods, wind storms and droughts, and seasonal factors such as periods of frost, heat spells, and rainfall patterns

For Cameroon, agriculture is truly important. The agriculture and forestry sectors provide employment for the majority of the population. About 80% of the country’s poor live in rural areas and work primarily in agriculture. About 35% of Cameroon’s GDP comes from agriculture and related activities, 22% from industry and mining, and 36% from services. Close to 70% of the national labor force is employed in agriculture, 10% in industry and mining, and 20% in services. Cameroon’s economy is therefore predominantly agrarian and agriculture and the exploitation of natural resources remain the driving force for the country’s economic development

Agriculture in Cameroon is moderately productive, extensively managed, and semi market-based. Farms and the associated input (storage, transportation and processing subsectors) provide low-cost, high-quality food for domestic consumers and contribute substantially to export earnings for the country as a whole. Farmland has been increasing steadily over the last five decades and the total annual value of the Cameroon agricultural sector’s output is greater than $4 billion. Crop production, dominated by cereals, tubers and bananas, is worth over $2.5 billion.

While Cameroon’s agriculture is on a long march to productivity, the system is still highly dependent on climate, because temperature, light, and water are the main drivers of crop growth .(Apanwuh,2018)

Plant diseases and pest infestations, as well as the supply of and demand for irrigation water, are also influenced by climate. The key uncertainty, therefore, for agricultural outlook in the country is the weather, despite relative improvements in technology and yield potential. Given the pronouncements of climatologists on the evidence of global warming, there is now concern that climatic impacts on food production and its costs will be exacerbated in Cameroon and beyond the Central African sub-region. Current climate variation is already altering the types, frequencies, and intensities of crop and livestock pests and diseases, the availability and timing of irrigation water supplies, and the severity of soil erosion.

In addition to climatic factors, human and market influences also affect agriculture in Cameroon. The agricultural systems in the country are managed; that is, there is active human influence in contrast to natural or unmanaged systems. Agricultural production patterns respond not only to biophysical changes in crop and livestock productivity brought about by climate change or technological change, but also to changes in agricultural management practices, crop and livestock prices, the cost and availability of inputs, and government policies. All of these are dynamic and changing within the national economy, even if climate remains constant, and make the assessment of the effects of climate change on production and food supply complex and challenging. Although there is uncertainty in each step of the assessment of climate change on agriculture, from economic activity to final climate change damages, more is now understood about the entire process. In order to understand how much to spend on mitigating damage and supporting appropriate adaptation, it is critical to understand to the possible effects of long-term climate change. This section of the study therefore examines the microeconomic impact of climate and projected changes on agricultural production in Cameroon.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

With a total land area of about 475,440 sq km and a coastline of 402 km, Cameroon’s climate varies with the terrain. Cameroon lies between 2°and 13° north latitude and between 8° and 16° east longitude in west central Africa. It is characterized by high year-round temperatures and the weather is controlled by equatorial and tropical air masses. The country has two distinct climatic regions: the humid equatorial region in the south and the semi-arid northern portion extending into the Sahel. In the humid southern region annual rainfall often averages 1500mm, while in the north it averages 500mm.

The basic climatic elements directly influence the spatial distribution of crop types and agricultural systems, because different crops require different amounts of rainfall, humidity, warmth and sunshine. In Cameroon’s rainfed agriculture, climate is the main factor determining crop types and yields. Beyond certain climatic limits, it becomes impossible or disadvantageous to cultivate certain types of crops

The forest zone of Cameroon, with its high temperatures, heavy rainfall fairly distributed throughout the year and consequently abundant amount of soil moisture favors the cultivation of tree crops and tubers. The western highland region is conducive to the cultivation of all types of crops because its mountainous character influences the prevailing climate conditions. The different climate conditions that exist at different altitudes affect agriculture production differently. Lowland areas such as the Mbaw plain, the Ndop plain and the Bafut lowland are areas favorable for tree crops, especially oil palm. The increasing length of the dry season in this region despite the abundant precipitation favors the cultivation of cereals, especially maize. At very high altitudes, especially around the Santa, Bui and Ndu regions, temperatures are quite low, making it possible to cultivate temperate crops such as potatoes and various vegetables

The spatial pattern of livestock farming is also explained by the variation in climatic conditions. For example, the north and part of the western region, where rainfall totals range between 700mm and 1200mm. support pastoral nomadism. The climate in these regions produces extensive grass cover for grazing, and does not favor tsetse flies, which are harmful to the cattle. The humid southern climatic conditions, on the other hand, with rainfall of more than 1500mm, support pig farming

Rainfall variability and unreliability, floods, frost, windstorms and droughts often have devastating effects on agriculture. Increasing rainfall variability results in droughts, reduction in soil moisture, and consequently a decline in agricultural productivity. Northern Cameroon is noted for intermittent droughts. Periods of drought which have severely affected Saharan northern Cameroon include the 1972–1973, 1982–1983 and 1987–1988 dry spells. Though these droughts may be natural in occurrence and origin, it is important to note that their severity is as a result of over-grazing, farming on marginal lands and deforestation from wood gathering. Besides droughts, northern Cameroon also has to cope with periodic floods which are common between August and September. Some of these floods, especially the 1988–1989 ones, destroyed thousands of hectares of cereal farms. Long dry seasons are followed by short rainy seasons that come with torrential downpours that destroy food, property and life.

The movement of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) influences Cameroon’s rainfall patterns and their variability. When rainfall does not meet the crop requirements, the country’s limited capacity for irrigation and its high population growth rates will increase the probability of food shortages. Climatically speaking, only about 56% of land in the country is assumed to be suitable for agricultural activities. Inter-annual climate variability affects agriculture in a number of ways and threatens food security in Cameroon.

The variability and unreliability of rainfall in particular, implies high risks in agriculture, possible deterioration of sectorial growth and hindrance to overall economic progress. This raises an important question: What will be the consequences for the agricultural sector under changed global climate?

1.3 Research questions

Considering the findings of global warming research in other regions of the world, some pertinent questions can be asked about climate variability and change in Cameroon and the response of agriculture:

1.3.1 The main question

What is the influence of climate change on agricultural productivity in Cameroon?

1.3.2 Specific question

1. What is the role of climate change on land productivity?
2. What is the influence of climate change on labor productivity?
3. What is the influence of climate change on agricultural output?

1.4 Research objectives

The main objective of the research is to assess the impact of climate change in Cameroon’s agriculture, to provide meaningful insight and contribute to efforts aimed at ensuring increased food availability through sustainable domestic production and increased income from agricultural production. The study therefore conducted cross-district analysis and extrapolated the results to national districts, and extended these to a national level economic analysis of the impacts of climate change on agricultural production.

1.4.1 Main objective

To access the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Cameroon

1.4.2 The specific objectives

1. To assess the impact of climate change on labor productivity.
2. To access the role of climate change on land productivity.
3. To determine the influence of climate change on agricultural output.

THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY THE CASE OF CAMEROON