“MATHEMATICAL MODELLING FOR EVALUATING ROAD MAINTENANCE NEEDS AND INTERVENTIONS”

“MATHEMATICAL MODELLING FOR EVALUATING ROAD MAINTENANCE NEEDS AND INTERVENTIONS”

Abstract:

A mathematical model for prioritizing road maintenance in terms of the timing of maintenance intervention and scope of work done is developed. Three sub-models are incorporated namely, classification, performance and cost sub-models. The classification sub-model uses the roughness measurement to classify the road sections into one of six different states according to their degree of disrepair. The performance sub-model utilizes the first order MarKov Chain Process to simulate future states of the road pavement. The cost sub-model computes both the user cost and maintenance intervention costs. The models are then used to simulate the performance of Rano-Sumaila road in Kano State of Nigeria for a period of twenty years. Results indicate that prompt response to maintenance needs reduces overall expenditure on maintenance over time and also that maintenance expenditure has a high rate of return. The benefit-cost ratio of intervention expenditure on different maintenance activities was found to vary from about twenty eight to less than two, depending on the degree of disrepair on the road before the intervention. It was also confirmed that yearly upgrading of all road sections to the best state would cost less than half of yearly reconstruction of only the totally collapsed sections.

“MATHEMATICAL MODELLING FOR EVALUATING ROAD MAINTENANCE NEEDS AND INTERVENTIONS”